Modelling of Turkey's net energy consumption using artificial neural network

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to develop the equations for forecasting net energy consumption (NEC) using artificial neural network (ANN) technique in order to determine the future level of the energy consumption in Turkey. Two different models were used in order to train the neural network: (i) Population, gross generation, installed capacity and years are used in input layer of network (Model 1). (ii) Energy sources are used in input layer of network (Model 2). The NEC is in output layer for two models. R2 values for training data are equal to 0.99944 and 0.99913, for Model 1 and Model 2, respectively. Similarly, R2 values for testing data are equal to 0.997386 and 0.999558 for Model 1 and Model 2, respectively. According to the results, the NEC prediction using ANN technique will be helpful in developing highly applicable and productive planning for energy policies. Copyright © 2005 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.