İşletmelerde senaryo tabanlı strateji seçimine yönelik bir model önerisi
[ X ]
Tarih
2023
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Kırıkkale Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Senaryolar, günümüzün dinamik iş koşullarında belirsizlik ve eğilimlerden yola çıkarak alternatif geleceklere hazırlanmanın en iyi yollarından biridir. Artan rekabet ortamında sürdürülebilir bir başarı elde etmek isteyen firmaların tercihi, planlama sürecinde tüm değişkenleri göz önünde bulundurarak birden fazla geleceğe odaklanmaktır. Bu araştırmanın amacı, bir firmaya özgü senaryo tabanlı strateji geliştirmek ve her senaryo için en iyi stratejinin belirlenmesine karar vermektir. Tespit edilen problem ve çalışmanın amacı doğrultusunda dört aşamalı bir model tasarlanmıştır. İlk aşamada, 2x2 matrisinden yararlanılarak dört senaryo geliştirilmiştir. İkinci aşamada, iç ve dış çevre faktörlerini birleştiren SWOT matrisi oluşturulmuştur. Üçüncü aşamada, tespit edilen problemin çözüme kavuşması için SENARYO-SWOT matrisi tasarlanmış ve tüm senaryolarla uyumlu ÜF (üstünlük-fırsat), ÜT (üstünlük-tehdit), ZF (zayıflık-fırsat), ZT (zayıflık-tehdit) stratejileri geliştirilmiştir. Modelin dördüncü ve son aşamasında ise strateji seçimi için kriterler belirlenmiştir ve SWARA (Step-wise Weight Assesment Ratio Analysis) yönteminden yararlanılarak bu kriterler ağırlıklandırılmıştır. Kriterlerin ağırlıklandırılmasının ardından, her bir senaryo altında, stratejiler kriterlere göre değerlendirilerek başlangıç karar matrisleri oluşturulmuştur. SENARYO-SWOT matrisindeki puanlar başlangıç karar matrisleri ile birleştirilmiş ve nihai karar matrisleri elde edilmiştir. Son olarak, nihai karar matrisleri çok kriterli karar verme yöntemlerinden WASPAS (Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment) ve COPRAS (Complex Proportional Assessment) yöntemlerine entegre edilmiş ve her senaryo için en iyi stratejinin seçimi gerçekleşmiştir. Hem WASPAS hem de COPRAS yöntemine göre, Senaryo 1 için ZF (zayıflık-fırsat) stratejisi, Senaryo 2 için ZT (zayıflık-tehdit) stratejisi, Senaryo 3 için ÜF (üstünlük-fırsat) stratejisi, Senaryo 4 için de ÜT (üstünlük-tehdit) stratejisi en yüksek ağırlığa sahip olarak birinci sırada yer almıştır. Araştırmadan elde edilen bulgular, önerilen modelin uygulanabilir ve geçerli olduğunu göstermiştir.
Scenarios are one of the best ways to prepare for alternative futures based on uncertainty and trends in today's dynamic business conditions. The choice of companies that want to achieve sustainable success in an increasingly competitive environment is to focus on more than one future, taking into account all variables during the planning process. The purpose of this research is to develop a scenario-based strategy specific to a company and to decide on the best strategy for each scenario. A four-stage model was designed in line with the identified problem and the purpose of the study. In the first stage, four scenarios were developed using the 2x2 matrix. In the second stage, the SWOT matrix was created, combining internal and external environmental factors. In the third stage, a SCENARIO-SWOT matrix was designed to solve the identified problem, and SO (strengths-opportunities), ST (strengths -threats), WO (weaknesses-opportunities), WT (weaknesses-threats) strategies compatible with all scenarios were developed. In the fourth and final stage of the model, criteria for strategy selection were determined and these criteria were weighted using the SWARA (Step-wise Weight Assesment Ratio Analysis) method. After weighting the criteria, initial decision matrices were created by evaluating the strategies according to the criteria under each scenario. The final decision matrices were obtained by combining the scores in the SCENARIO-SWOT matrix with the initial decision matrices. Finally, final decision matrices were integrated into WASPAS (Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment) and COPRAS (Complex Proportional Assessment) methods, which are multi-criteria decision-making methods, and the best strategy was selected for each scenario. According to both the WASPAS and COPRAS methods, the WO (weaknesses-opportunities) strategy for Scenario 1, the WT (weaknesses-threats) strategy for Scenario 2, the SO (strengths-opportunities) strategy for Scenario 3, the ST (strengths -threats) strategy for Scenario 4 ranked first with the highest weight. Findings from the research showed that the proposed model is applicable and valid.
Scenarios are one of the best ways to prepare for alternative futures based on uncertainty and trends in today's dynamic business conditions. The choice of companies that want to achieve sustainable success in an increasingly competitive environment is to focus on more than one future, taking into account all variables during the planning process. The purpose of this research is to develop a scenario-based strategy specific to a company and to decide on the best strategy for each scenario. A four-stage model was designed in line with the identified problem and the purpose of the study. In the first stage, four scenarios were developed using the 2x2 matrix. In the second stage, the SWOT matrix was created, combining internal and external environmental factors. In the third stage, a SCENARIO-SWOT matrix was designed to solve the identified problem, and SO (strengths-opportunities), ST (strengths -threats), WO (weaknesses-opportunities), WT (weaknesses-threats) strategies compatible with all scenarios were developed. In the fourth and final stage of the model, criteria for strategy selection were determined and these criteria were weighted using the SWARA (Step-wise Weight Assesment Ratio Analysis) method. After weighting the criteria, initial decision matrices were created by evaluating the strategies according to the criteria under each scenario. The final decision matrices were obtained by combining the scores in the SCENARIO-SWOT matrix with the initial decision matrices. Finally, final decision matrices were integrated into WASPAS (Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment) and COPRAS (Complex Proportional Assessment) methods, which are multi-criteria decision-making methods, and the best strategy was selected for each scenario. According to both the WASPAS and COPRAS methods, the WO (weaknesses-opportunities) strategy for Scenario 1, the WT (weaknesses-threats) strategy for Scenario 2, the SO (strengths-opportunities) strategy for Scenario 3, the ST (strengths -threats) strategy for Scenario 4 ranked first with the highest weight. Findings from the research showed that the proposed model is applicable and valid.
Açıklama
Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İşletme Ana Bilim Dalı
Anahtar Kelimeler
İşletme, Business Administration
