INTEREST RATES: THE CAUSE OR THE RESULT? A CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM REVISITED (THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION IN TURKEY)

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dc.authoridGebesoglu, Pinar/0000-0002-3707-579X
dc.contributor.authorVarlik, Nimet
dc.contributor.authorGebesoglu, Pinar Fulya
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-21T16:41:50Z
dc.date.available2025-01-21T16:41:50Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.departmentKırıkkale Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates the validity of Fisher Hypothesis and Neo-Fisherian approach for Turkey by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) as well as the Granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The scope of the study focuses on flexible inflation targeting period in Turkey. Inflation uncertainty is estimated by employing the GARCH model for the period October 2010-May 2020. Empirical results gathered from ARDL indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between compound interest rate for government domestic debt securities (nominal interest rate), expected inflation rate and inflation uncertainty in the long run. The results of Toda and Yamamoto causality test suggest that inflation uncertainty and expected inflation affect nominal interest rates. Also, inflation uncertainty and expected inflation rate are affected by nominal interest rates. The empirical results indicating two-way causality provides significant empirical evidence for the presence of the Neo-Fisherian effect in addition to the Fisher Hypothesis in Turkey.
dc.identifier.doi10.5281/zenodo.5136456
dc.identifier.endpage92
dc.identifier.issn1925-4423
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.startpage76
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5136456
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12587/24963
dc.identifier.volume11
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000678547100004
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInt Journal Contemporary Economics & Administrative Sciences
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241229
dc.subjectInflation; Inflation Uncertainty; Unconventional Monetary Policy; Flexible Inflation Targeting; Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test
dc.titleINTEREST RATES: THE CAUSE OR THE RESULT? A CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM REVISITED (THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION IN TURKEY)
dc.typeArticle

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