The Earthquake Risk Analysis Based On Copula Models For Turkey
Yükleniyor...
Tarih
2017
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Yildiz Technical Univ
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
This study aims to explore the dependence structure between magnitude and frequency for Turkey earthquake data. In the literature, the Gutenberg Richter (GR) model based on lineer regression is often used to determine this dependence. The dependence structure is evaluated using copula models in this study. Copulas are useful statistical tool for modeling the dependence structure so it does not require assumptions such as linearity and normality. Therefore, as well as GR model, various copula functions are used to determine the magnitude-frequency relationship of earthquakes. An application is given to illustrate that the copulas can be used as alternatives to the GR model. The best copula models are selected by goodness of fit tests. Additionally, the probabilities of earthquake occurrence and the bivariate return periods are estimated for these selected copula models. It is seen that the probabilities of earthquakes occurrence for GR and copula models are almost identical, whereas the return periods based on copula models is more realistic than GR approach.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Earthquake, magnitude-frequency, Gutenberg-Richter, dependence, copula, Turkey
Kaynak
Sigma Journal Of Engineering And Natural Sciences-Sigma Muhendislik Ve Fen Bilimleri Dergisi
WoS Q DeÄŸeri
N/A
Scopus Q DeÄŸeri
Cilt
35
Sayı
2
Künye
Kızılok Kara E. The Earthquake Risk Analysis Based On Copula Models For Turkey. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences. 2017; 35(2): 187-200.
