Türkiye’de meydana gelebilecek depremlere karşı afet yönetim sistemi performansının veri zarflama analizi ile değerlendirilmesi
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Tarih
2020
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Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Teknolojik ve endüstriyel gelişmelerle beraber nüfus yoğunluğunun artması ile doğal ve beşerî kaynaklı afetler insanlar için gittikçe daha riskli ve zararlı olmaya başlamıştır. Bu durum insanları afetlere karşı daha duyarlı olmaya bununla beraber olası felaketlerin önüne geçmek ve etkisini azaltmak için afet yönetim sistemleri kurmaya yönlendirmektedir. Ülkemiz de üzerinde bulunduğu coğrafya sebebiyle ani gelişen doğal afetlerden olan deprem tehlikesi yüksek ülkeler arasındadır. Bu çalışmada, yakın zamanda meydana gelen dört büyük deprem örneklem olarak ele alınarak, Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemlerinden (ÇKKV) biri olan Veri Zarflama Analizi (VZA) yöntemiyle Türkiye’nin depremlere karşı afet yönetim sistemi performansının değerlendirilmesi yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda Türkiye’de meydana gelebilecek depremlere karşı oluşturulan afet yönetim sisteminin yeterli olup olmadığı, sistemin eksik yanlarının neler olduğu ve ne gibi tedbirler geliştirilmesi gerektiği ayrıntılı bir şekilde analiz edilmiştir.
Extended abstract Natural and human disasters have become riskier and harmful for people as a result of increase in population density together with technological and industrial developments. This leads people to be more vulnerable to disasters and, consequently, to set up disaster management systems to prevent and mitigate potential disasters. With an effective disaster planning prepared, necessary precautions can be taken before the earthquake and all units can intervene by keeping the turmoil and complexity at a minimum level during and after the earthquake. Our country is among the countries with high earthquake risk due to the geography on which it is located. In this study, four major earthquakes will be dealt with in the near future. These earthquakes (in chronological order) are 13 March 1992 Erzincan Earthquake,17 August/ 12 November 1999 Marmara Earthquakes, 01 May 2003 Bingöl Earthquake, 23 October / 9 November 2011 Van Earthquakes. The aim of this study, to evaluate the Disaster Management System with DEA, which is one of the MCDA methods, for earthquakes that may occur in Turkey. The number of disasters on the world continues to increase consistently compared to the old times. The ecological equilibrium deterioration that accompanies global warming and technological developments brings with many natural phenomena. Earthquakes, tornadoes, tsunamis living behind each other adversely affect the increasing world population. According to the researches of the scientists, these disasters will continue to increase in the coming period. Great catastrophes that have been experienced all over the world, indicate the importance of disaster management. Especially the 1999 Marmara Earthquake, which we experienced in our country and had many losses, has caused material and spiritual wounds in every part of society. After the Marmara Earthquake, our country understood the importance of disaster plans better. In this way, started to work to use the Disaster Management System more effectively. In our study, we use Data Envelopment Analysis which is a MultiCriteria Decision-Making method to analyze the effectiveness of the four major earthquakes in our country. In the light of the analysis, Marmara earthquakes found as an effective disaster management system. We associate this with the activities of the Turkish Armed Forces during the earthquake, such as carrying out search and rescue operations with 64 thousand personnel, transporting the wounded, ensuring the usual marriage and providing the same benefits. Because the Turkish Armed Forces started working shortly after the earthquake hit the scene. As a result of the work, 12794 dead and 27852 injured citizens were saved from debris. As in the Marmara earthquakes, the systemless and unplanned work experienced in search and rescue operations has not been observed in the intervention of Van earthquakes. As a matter of fact, the percentage of people who recovered from the wreckage was 28.1% with the help of search and rescue teams. When this earthquake with similar characteristics is examined in the world, it comes out as a real success. We have determined that this method of data envelopment analysis can be used to measure disaster management system performance. In the future studies, it is possible to use multicriteria decision-making methods such as Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and gray relational analysis method which can work with incomplete data so as to produce a solution to the problem of data acquisition.
Extended abstract Natural and human disasters have become riskier and harmful for people as a result of increase in population density together with technological and industrial developments. This leads people to be more vulnerable to disasters and, consequently, to set up disaster management systems to prevent and mitigate potential disasters. With an effective disaster planning prepared, necessary precautions can be taken before the earthquake and all units can intervene by keeping the turmoil and complexity at a minimum level during and after the earthquake. Our country is among the countries with high earthquake risk due to the geography on which it is located. In this study, four major earthquakes will be dealt with in the near future. These earthquakes (in chronological order) are 13 March 1992 Erzincan Earthquake,17 August/ 12 November 1999 Marmara Earthquakes, 01 May 2003 Bingöl Earthquake, 23 October / 9 November 2011 Van Earthquakes. The aim of this study, to evaluate the Disaster Management System with DEA, which is one of the MCDA methods, for earthquakes that may occur in Turkey. The number of disasters on the world continues to increase consistently compared to the old times. The ecological equilibrium deterioration that accompanies global warming and technological developments brings with many natural phenomena. Earthquakes, tornadoes, tsunamis living behind each other adversely affect the increasing world population. According to the researches of the scientists, these disasters will continue to increase in the coming period. Great catastrophes that have been experienced all over the world, indicate the importance of disaster management. Especially the 1999 Marmara Earthquake, which we experienced in our country and had many losses, has caused material and spiritual wounds in every part of society. After the Marmara Earthquake, our country understood the importance of disaster plans better. In this way, started to work to use the Disaster Management System more effectively. In our study, we use Data Envelopment Analysis which is a MultiCriteria Decision-Making method to analyze the effectiveness of the four major earthquakes in our country. In the light of the analysis, Marmara earthquakes found as an effective disaster management system. We associate this with the activities of the Turkish Armed Forces during the earthquake, such as carrying out search and rescue operations with 64 thousand personnel, transporting the wounded, ensuring the usual marriage and providing the same benefits. Because the Turkish Armed Forces started working shortly after the earthquake hit the scene. As a result of the work, 12794 dead and 27852 injured citizens were saved from debris. As in the Marmara earthquakes, the systemless and unplanned work experienced in search and rescue operations has not been observed in the intervention of Van earthquakes. As a matter of fact, the percentage of people who recovered from the wreckage was 28.1% with the help of search and rescue teams. When this earthquake with similar characteristics is examined in the world, it comes out as a real success. We have determined that this method of data envelopment analysis can be used to measure disaster management system performance. In the future studies, it is possible to use multicriteria decision-making methods such as Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and gray relational analysis method which can work with incomplete data so as to produce a solution to the problem of data acquisition.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynak
Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
11
Sayı
1
