Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Ayazma River Basin in the Marmara Region of Turkey

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.authoridYILDIZ, OSMAN/0000-0002-5544-101X
dc.authorid, jakub/0000-0002-4231-1080
dc.authoridAkturk, Gaye/0000-0002-9477-7827
dc.authoridGortych, Marta/0000-0001-5177-2287
dc.contributor.authorSeddiqe, Khaja Haroon
dc.contributor.authorSediqi, Rahmatullah
dc.contributor.authorYildiz, Osman
dc.contributor.authorAkturk, Gaye
dc.contributor.authorKostecki, Jakub
dc.contributor.authorGortych, Marta
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-21T16:38:15Z
dc.date.available2025-01-21T16:38:15Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentKırıkkale Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates the effects of climate change on streamflow in the Ayazma river basin located in the Marmara region of Turkey using a hydrological model. Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs from CNRM-CM5/RCA4, EC-EARTH/RACMO22E and NorESM1-M/HIRHAM5 with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were utilized to drive the HBV-Light (Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model. A trend analysis was performed with the Mann-Kendall trend test for precipitation and temperature projections. A meteorological drought assessment was presented using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) method for the worst-case scenario (i.e., RCP8.5). The calibrated and validated hydrological model was used for streamflow simulations in the basin for the period 2022-2100. The selected climate models were found to produce high precipitation projections with positive anomalies ranging from 22 to 227 mm. The increase in annual mean temperatures reached up to 1.8 degrees C and 2.6 degrees C for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The trend results showed statistically insignificant upward and downward trends in precipitation and statistically significant upward trends in temperatures at 5% significance level for both RCP scenarios. It was shown that there is a significant increase in drought intensities and durations for SPEI greater than 6 months after mid- century. Streamflow simulations showed decreasing trends for both RCP scenarios due to upward trend in temperature and, hence, evapotranspiration. Streamflow peaks obtained with the RCP8.5 scenario were generally lower than those obtained with the RCP4.5 scenario. The mean values of the streamflow simulations from the CNRM-CM5/RCA4 and NorESM1-M/HIRHAM5 outputs were approximately 2 to 10% lower than the observation mean. On the other hand, the average value obtained from the EC-EARTH/RACMO 22E outputs was significantly higher than the observation average, up to 32%. The results of this study can be useful for evaluating the impact of climate change on streamflow and developing sustainable climate adaptation options in the Ayazma river basin.
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/w15040763
dc.identifier.issn2073-4441
dc.identifier.issue4
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85149239725
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/w15040763
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12587/24610
dc.identifier.volume15
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000942178700001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherMdpi
dc.relation.ispartofWater
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241229
dc.subjectstreamflow; HBV-Light; SPEI; regional climate model
dc.titleEffects of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Ayazma River Basin in the Marmara Region of Turkey
dc.typeArticle

Dosyalar

Koleksiyon

WOS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu