Prospects for future projections of the basic energy sources in Turkey

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.contributor.authorSözen, A.
dc.contributor.authorArcaklıoğlu, E.
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-25T17:44:03Z
dc.date.available2020-06-25T17:44:03Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.descriptionARCAKLIOGLU, Erol/0000-0001-8073-5207
dc.description.abstractThe main goal of this study is to develop the energy sources estimation equations in order to estimate the future projections and make correct investments in Turkey using artificial neural network (ANN) approach. It is also expected that this study will be helpful in demonstrating energy situation of Turkey in amount of EU countries. Basic energy indicators such as population, gross generation, installed capacity, net energy consumption, import, export are used in input layer of ANN. Basic energy sources such as coal, lignite, fuel-oil, natural gas and hydraulic are in output layer. Data from 1975 to 2003 are used to train. Three years (1981, 1994 and 2003) are only used as test data to confirm this method. Also, in this study, the best approach was investigated for each energy sources by using different learning algorithms (scaled conjugate gradient [SCG] and Levenberg-Marquardt [LM]) and a logistic sigmoid transfer function in the ANN with developed software. The statistical coefficients of multiple determinations (R-2-value) for training data are equal to 0.99802, 0.99918, 0.997134, 0.998831 and 0.995681 for natural gas, lignite, coal, hydraulic, and fuel-oil, respectively. Similarly, these values for testing data are equal to 0.995623, 0.999456, 0.998545, 0.999236, and 0.99002. The best approach was found for lignite by SCG algorithm with seven neurons so mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is equal to 1.646753 for lignite. According to the results, the future projections of energy indicators using ANN technique have been obviously predicted within acceptable errors. Apart from reducing the whole time required, the importance of the ANN approach is possible to find solutions that make energy applications more viable and thus more attractive to potential users.en_US
dc.identifier.citationclosedAccessen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/15567240600813930
dc.identifier.endpage201en_US
dc.identifier.issn1556-7257
dc.identifier.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-34447512048
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage183en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org10.1080/15567240600813930
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12587/3995
dc.identifier.volume2en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000251419500006
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherTaylor & Francis Incen_US
dc.relation.ispartofEnergy Sources Part B-Economics Planning And Policy
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectartificial neural networken_US
dc.subjectconsumptionen_US
dc.subjectenergy sourcesen_US
dc.subjectestimationen_US
dc.subjectTurkeyen_US
dc.titleProspects for future projections of the basic energy sources in Turkeyen_US
dc.typeArticle

Dosyalar

Orijinal paket
Listeleniyor 1 - 1 / 1
[ X ]
İsim:
Prospects for future projections of the basic energy sources in Turkey.pdf
Boyut:
3.44 MB
Biçim:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Açıklama:
Tam Metin/Full Text
İndir

Koleksiyon

WOS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Makale Koleksiyonu
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu