Energy demand estimation in Turkey according to modes of transportation: Bezier search differential evolution and black widow optimization algorithms-based model development and application
[ X ]
Tarih
2023
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Springer London Ltd
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
In this study, Bezier search differential evolution (BeSD) and black widow optimization (BWO) algorithms-based estimation models in different forms have been developed to estimate the transportation energy consumption in Turkey. In order to examine the effect of demand distribution in modes of transportation on energy consumption, parameters in modes of transportation which are Passenger-km and Freight-km, Carbon dioxide emissions, Gross Domestic Product and Infrastructure Investment parameters are used as model parameters. Model performances are evaluated within different error criteria, and their performances are revealed. The BeSD algorithm performed better than the BWO algorithm and revealed that it is the most appropriate method for transportation energy demand (TED) estimation. Although each model developed using two different approaches is usable, BeSD-based quadratic model has shown the highest performance with a 0.95% MAPE value, and TED's predictions for the future have been put forth based on this model. According to two different scenarios, TED projections until 2040 are presented for cases in which the current distribution of demand in modes of transportation and there is a demand shift from highway to other modes of transportation. The projections of the parameters have been determined by the least squares method. In the first scenario, it has been predicted that there will be 63 MTOE energy demand in 2040, and the projection values are consistent with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources values. In the second scenario, when demand shifts from the highway to other modes of transportation, it is predicted that energy consumption will decrease and there will be 42 MTOE in 2040.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Transportation energy demand; Bezier search differential evolution algorithm; Black widow optimization algorithm; Modes of transportation; Future projections
Kaynak
Neural Computing & Applications
WoS Q Değeri
Q2
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
35
Sayı
9
