Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis
Yükleniyor...
Tarih
2011
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Elsevier Sci Ltd
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
As a small open economy, Turkey depends on both imported oil and natural gas, importing almost two-thirds of its primary energy demand. This paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price shocks for Turkey as a small, open oil- and gas-importing country. To analyze the potential long-term effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables of interest, including GDP, consumer price inflation, indirect tax revenues, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model for the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of oil price shocks under three distinct scenarios: reference, high and low oil prices. The simulation results show that these oil prices have very significant effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions in the Turkish economy. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Açıklama
Aydin, Levent/0000-0001-8179-7418; Acar, Mustafa/0000-0002-7426-6747
Anahtar Kelimeler
Oil price shocks, Dynamic CGE, Turkish Economy
Kaynak
Energy Policy
WoS Q Değeri
Q1
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
39
Sayı
3
Künye
closedAccess
