Meteorological Drought Analysis and Regional Frequency Analysis in the Kızılırmak Basin: Creating a Framework for Sustainable Water Resources Management
[ X ]
Tarih
2024
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Mdpi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Drought research is needed to understand the complex nature of drought phenomena and to develop effective management and mitigation strategies accordingly. This study presents a comprehensive regional frequency analysis (RFA) of 12-month meteorological droughts in the K & imath;z & imath;l & imath;rmak Basin of Turkey using the L-moments approach. For this purpose, monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2020 obtained from 22 meteorological stations in the basin are used. In the drought analysis, the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Z-Score Index (ZSI), China-Z Index (CZI) and Modified China-Z Index (MCZI), which are widely used precipitation-based indices in the literature, are employed. Here, the main objectives of this study are (i) to determine homogeneous regions based on drought, (ii) to identify the best-fit regional frequency distributions, (iii) to estimate the maximum drought intensities for return periods ranging from 5 to 1000 years, and (iv) to obtain drought maps for the selected return periods. The homogeneity test results show that the basin consists of a single homogeneous region according to the drought indices considered here. The best-fit regional frequency distributions for the selected drought indices are identified using L-moment ratio diagrams and ZDIST goodness-of-fit tests. According to the results, the best-fit regional distributions are the Pearson-Type 3 (PE3) for the SPI and ZSI, generalized extreme value (GEV) for the CZI, and generalized logistic distribution (GLO) for the MCZI. The drought maps obtained here can be utilized as a useful tool for estimating the probability of drought at any location across the basin, even without enough data for hydrological research.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
regional frequency analysis; L-moments; probability distribution function; drought indices; K & imath;z & imath;l & imath;rmak Basin
Kaynak
Water
WoS Q Değeri
N/A
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
16
Sayı
15
