Investigation of the Long and Short-Term Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Inflation in Turkiye

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dc.contributor.authorAytekin, İbrahim
dc.contributor.authorBayrakdar, Seda
dc.contributor.authorAksoy, Emre
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-21T16:33:36Z
dc.date.available2025-01-21T16:33:36Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentKırıkkale Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThe Covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate shock that the Turkish economy has been subjected to have put pressure on inflation in that nation's economy, which is reliant on imported inputs for production. Accordingly, in this study, the relationship between the monthly consumer price index, producer price index, and real effective exchange rate in T & uuml;rkiye between the years 2004-2021 was examined by the time series analysis method. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests were used to determine the stationarity levels of the data in time series analysis. According to the findings of the unit root tests, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Bound test was utilized to ascertain the cointegration relationship between the data. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test was employed in the analysis' last stage to determine whether there was a statistical correlation between the data. The empirical results are that the real effective exchange rate, inflation, and producer price index are data that can affect each other in the long run in T & uuml;rkiye. In the study, it has been determined that a 1% increase in the producer price index in T & uuml;rkiye, in the long run, will create a 0.40% increase in inflation. In the long run, the relationship between inflation and the real effective exchange rate is statistically insignificant. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, on the other hand, reveal that there is a one-way causality relationship from the producer price index to inflation, but a bidirectional causality relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the producer price index.
dc.identifier.doi10.26650/JEPR1114402
dc.identifier.endpage112
dc.identifier.issn2148-3876
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.startpage87
dc.identifier.trdizinid1170281
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1114402
dc.identifier.urihttps://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay1170281
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12587/23808
dc.identifier.volume10
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001336213700005
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakTR-Dizin
dc.language.isotr
dc.publisherIstanbul Univ
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Economic Policy Researches-Iktisat Politikasi Arastirmalari Dergisi
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241229
dc.subjectARDL bound test; Exchange rate; Inflation; Producer prices; Toda-Yamamoto
dc.titleInvestigation of the Long and Short-Term Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Inflation in Turkiye
dc.typeArticle

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