Sensitivity analysis of an accident prediction model by the fractional factorial method
Yükleniyor...
Tarih
2007
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
Sensitivity analysis of a model can help us determine relative effects of model parameters on model results. In this study, the sensitivity of the accident prediction model proposed by Zegeer et al. [Zegeer, CN., Reinfurt, D., Hummer, J., Herf, L., Hunter, W., 1987. Safety Effect of Cross-section Design for Two-lane Roads, vols. 1-2. Report FHWA-RD-87/008 and 009 Federal Highway Administration, Department of Transportation, USA] to its parameters was investigated by the fractional factorial analysis method. The reason for selecting this particular model is that it incorporates both traffic and road geometry parameters besides terrain characteristics. The evaluation of sensitivity analysis indicated that average daily traffic (ADT), lane width (IV), width of paved shoulder (PA), median (H) and their interactions (i.e., ADT-W, ADT-PA and ADT-H) have significant effects on number of accidents. Based on the absolute value of parameter effects at the three- and two-standard deviation thresholds ADT was found to be of primary importance, while the remaining identified parameters seemed to be of secondary importance. This agrees with the fact that ADT is among the most effective parameters to determine road geometry and therefore, it is directly related to number of accidents. Overall, the fractional factorial method was found to be an efficient tool to examine the relative importance of the selected accident prediction model parameters. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Açıklama
AKGUNGOR, ALI PAYIDAR/0000-0003-0669-5715
Anahtar Kelimeler
accident prediction model, number of accidents, road safety, sensitivity analysis, factorial design method
Kaynak
Accident Analysis And Prevention
WoS Q Değeri
Q1
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
39
Sayı
1
Künye
closedAccess
