Transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine

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dc.contributor.authorGul, Serdar
dc.contributor.authorTuncay, Kagan
dc.contributor.authorBinici, Baris
dc.contributor.authorAydin, Beyazit Bestami
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-14T18:10:31Z
dc.date.available2021-01-14T18:10:31Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentKKÜ
dc.descriptionAydin, Beyazit Bestami/0000-0001-8613-623X
dc.description.abstractIntroduction: There are significant differences in the active cases and fatality rates of Covid-19 for different European countries. Methodology: The present study employs Monte Carlo based transmission growth simulations for Italy, Germany and Turkey. The probabilities of transmission at home, work and social networks and the number of initial cases have been calibrated to match the basic reproduction number and the reported fatality curves. Parametric studies were conducted to observe the effect of social distancing, work closure, testing and quarantine of the family and colleagues of positively tested individuals. Results: It is observed that estimates of the number of initial cases in Italy compared to Turkey and Germany are higher. Turkey will probably experience about 30% less number of fatalities than Germany due its smaller elderly population. If social distancing and work contacts are limited to 25% of daily routines, Germany and Turkey may limit the number of fatalities to a few thousands as the reproduction number decreases to about 1.3 from 2.8. Random testing may reduce the number of fatalities by 10% upon testing least 5/1000 of the population. Quarantining of family and workmates of positively tested individuals may reduce the total number of fatalities by about 50%. Conclusions: The fatality rate of Covid-19 is estimated to be about 1.5% based on the simulation results. This may further be reduced by limiting the number of non-family contacts to two, conducting tests more than 0.5% of the population and immediate quarantine of the contacts for positively tested individuals.en_US
dc.identifier.citationGül S., Tuncay K., Binici B, Aydın B.B. (2020) Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine. J Infect Dev Ctries 14:713–720.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3855/jidc.12844
dc.identifier.endpage720en_US
dc.identifier.issn1972-2680
dc.identifier.issue7en_US
dc.identifier.pmid32794459
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85089498361
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage713en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3855/jidc.12844
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12587/12650
dc.identifier.volume14en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000560659400008
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMed
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherJ INFECTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIESen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJOURNAL OF INFECTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjecttransmissionen_US
dc.subjectsocial distancingen_US
dc.titleTransmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantineen_US
dc.typeArticle

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